I sort this into three tranches. First is the immediate term – how we deal with the mass lockdown? This phase is almost over. Second, is the mid term, which is how do we cope over the next 1,2, god forbid, 3+ years prior to a cure, with this threat being omnipresent but somewhat controllable. Third, is the long term impact, post vaccine, on our lives and on the real estate world. I hate the phrase “we all have short term memories”, suggesting a blind return to the past. We know, through the long term changes from past crises, that there will be forever changed behavior in our lives, and real estate, around long term trends that would’ve happened anyway. We will continue to explore this in our podcast, Leading Voices.

I do not believe that density and urbanization is dead. The story of densification is the story of human evolution and a basic part of human nature. But how, in what will now be a forever requirement, will we to be able to watch, catch and turn on and off the social distancing spigot? How will this mandate affect existing and to-be-built real estate? How will it affect our different food groups? And, I have the deepest questions around how this will affect government and our social compact.

Last comment is that this also affects us differently based on where we are in our lives and careers. I am 63 and lead a national recruiting firm, so I think a lot about phase of career. For me and Terra Search, this is a time to invest in our next decade rather than slow down. But the crisis means very different things to my daughter, a year from graduation with a planning degree, and entering into her career; for mid-career people looking for the next cycle to make their mark; and people like me planning the coming years as their legacy.

Crisis and retooling means opportunity not only for owners, investors, developers but planners, architects, prop tech and all other aspects of the real estate ecosystem to make a meaningful difference. I am an idealist more than an investor, so I prioritize the question of “where do I make a difference over the next phase of my career” rather than “where can I get the greatest returns”. But we we know that cycle turns and crises have traditionally been the place where fortunes have been made – opportunity abounds.

Finally, this crisis could cause our industry to better articulate its essential benefit to our society as the builder of our shared built-environment. Maybe we can replace NIMBYism with thoughtful discourse on how to best build our cities and we can replace rent-strikes and rent control with a public perception that “landlords” have a symbiotic, functional relationship with tenants. Maybe we can demonstrate leadership in helping resolve fundamental issues like homelessness and housing affordability collaboratively, instead in conflict. Again, I am an idealist, but I do believe that this crisis provides these across-the-board opportunities and challenges to which our industry can rise.

Yet, in the face of this unprecedented societal change, we can all point to ways in which our communities have demonstrated the resilience to adapt to our new realities. This is especially true in our real estate community: local governments have found creative ways to keep essential services – including development and construction –moving forward; many banks, landlords and tenants have worked together in a time when they could easily drift apart; developers have transitioned community outreach to virtual online formats. The list goes on.

However, this crisis has also made undeniable that too many of the people who contribute to the vibrancy of the urban life that we are mourning have been living at the razor edge of financial insecurity. Data suggests that the health and financial impacts of this crisis have been inequitably borne by many of the people who contribute to the richness, diversity, and uniqueness of our cities. The recovery of the way of life that drew many us to the Bay Area will be determined by our response to the fragmented socioeconomic reality that this crisis has brought into plain sight.

Pre-COVID, it was estimated that more than 100,000 workers in the Bay Area commute over three hours a day, largely due to the housing affordability crisis. We can do better. For the people and families impacted by this dynamic, for the environment that quietly bears the burden, and for our communities that are stronger when each of its members are on solid ground.

In my role as a land use attorney, I have observed that a major impediment to implementing big, progressive solutions is a fear of change. Yet, our response to COVID has shown us that human capacity to adapt to change is immense.

We have the opportunity to channel our adaptability to push forward “resilient” development. There are countless ways to do so. Planning for smart density that is proximate to jobs, food, transit, and safe outdoor space.  Streamlining development of affordable and moderate-income housing, including for-sale housing, that provides opportunities for people to gain strong financial footing. Developing alternative housing solutions such as ADUs to allow families and communities to affordably live together. And on.

Much of the legal framework to do this already exists; we now need to implement it on a much broader scale. To do so, each of our actions matter: community meetings attended, development applications reviewed, deals financed, and votes cast at local elections. This health crisis is teaching us that small contributions have the effect of adding up to a much greater collective result. We each have a role to play in making sure the Bay Area that emerges from this crisis is representative of the truths we have learned during it.

Opportunities
TMG Partners has been successfully developing real estate in the Bay Area for more than three decades. We have seen cycles start and end and numerous shocks to the system – some that changed business for a time, such as after 9/11. And we have found opportunities in each cycle, many of which we discovered before the market had recovered. Today, our industry is  considering how to improve homes, offices, hotel, and retail spaces for a cleaner, healthier environment and one that is reflective of the economic conditions as we begin the next cycle.

In the short run, we are planning how to open and operate our buildings safely. We are working with vendors and tenants to implement cleaning and wayfinding strategies so that as our community returns to work, it can do so safely and with confidence. As we do this, we are strengthening relationships with our tenants, lenders and partners by providing information and resources, and sharing transparently. Open communication has been key in the past eight weeks and will be critical going forward.

Virtually we have already come together. Soon we will begin to congregate – though with more and candidly needed improved protocols – and continue to deepen the ties in keeping what are now collective and enduring new goals.